Pre-Market Briefing — September 29, 2026: Oil Surges, Yields Spike, Anthropic IPO

Overview

Good morning, it's Tuesday, September 29th. We're seeing a mixed picture in pre-market trading. S&P 500 futures are pointing about 0.3% lower, while Nasdaq futures are indicating a positive open, up around 0.2%. The big story remains in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5.24%, its highe

In this show

• Good morning, it's Tuesday, September 29th. We're seeing a mixed picture in pre-market trading. S&P 500 futures are pointing about 0.3% lower, while Nasdaq futures are indicating a positive open, up around 0.2%. The big story remains in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5.24%, its highest level in nearly two decades. That's putting pressure on equities. Meanwhile, energy prices are surging on geopolitical news, with Brent crude futures climbing toward $100 a barrel. In Asia, markets closed mostly lower. I'm your host, and with me are our World and Markets Analysts.
• Looking at the calendar for today, we have a packed schedule of economic data that could move markets. At 9:00 AM Eastern, we'll get the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July. Then at 10:00 AM, two key reports land: September's Consumer Confidence and August's JOLTS Job Openings. On the earnings front, CarMax and Carnival Corp. will report before the bell, followed by Concentrix and AAR Corp. after the close. And keep an eye on the Fed, as we're scheduled to hear from multiple officials throughout the day, including Vice Chair Bowman, Governor Barr, and New York Fed President John Williams.
• That surge in oil prices is being driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution have faded after President Donald Trump publicly denied reports that his administration was offering sanctions relief. This raises the risk of continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world's oil supply. The uncertainty sent Brent crude futures jumping 1.97% to nearly $100 a barrel, while WTI crude also gained over 1.7%. The geopolitical risk premium is firmly back in the energy market this morning, fueling inflation concerns.
• And those rising energy costs are a key factor behind the relentless climb in bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has now pushed past 5.2%, a level not seen since 2007. Investors are increasingly concerned about persistent inflation, especially with a resilient economy that may keep the Federal Reserve in a hawkish stance. These multi-decade highs in borrowing costs are creating significant headwinds for the stock market. Higher yields make future corporate profits less valuable, putting particular pressure on growth-oriented sectors like technology, which has been a market leader.
• In the tech world, a major story is developing as AI lab Anthropic prepares for its initial public offering. The company is reportedly targeting a staggering valuation of over $2 trillion. The newly released IPO prospectus provides a classic high-growth narrative: revenue has increased significantly, but so have the company's losses. This highlights the immense capital required to compete at the frontier of artificial intelligence. Wall Street will be watching this debut extremely closely, as it's seen as a crucial barometer for investor appetite for high-cost, high-potential AI companies.
• We're seeing a big pre-market mover in the biotech space. Shares of Summit Therapeutics are soaring after AstraZeneca announced a $2 billion strategic equity investment in the company. This collaboration is centered on Summit's promising bispecific antibody, called ivonescimab. The plan is to combine this asset with AstraZeneca's extensive oncology pipeline to develop new cancer treatments. This is a significant vote of confidence from a major pharmaceutical player, and investors are rewarding Summit accordingly, with the stock indicating a massive gap up at the open.
• Another single-stock story creating waves is Fair Isaac Corp., better known as FICO. The stock fell sharply on news from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The regulator announced that government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now incorporate the VantageScore model for mortgage underwriting, alongside the traditional FICO score. This move shatters FICO's long-held dominance in the U.S. mortgage market. The introduction of a major competitor has raised serious concerns among investors about FICO's future revenue growth, leading to the significant sell-off.
• Turning to the overseas markets, major indexes in Asia closed in negative territory. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.6% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.5%. The sell-off was driven by a cocktail of concerns, including the spillover effect from rising U.S. Treasury yields and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East we just discussed. A mixed economic outlook for China also weighed on sentiment. In Hong Kong, shares of online fashion giant Shein were a notable laggard, falling significantly after the company posted a disappointing earnings report that missed expectations.
• In Europe, markets opened this morning with some cautious optimism, showing a degree of resilience. The FTSE 100 in London is up about 0.2%, with the DAX and CAC 40 also slightly firmer. The positive tone comes despite the headwinds from those higher bond yields and geopolitical risks. Corporate news is providing some direction for individual stocks. Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd is trading higher after raising its full-year outlook. In contrast, Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Spruengli issued a profit warning, sending its shares lower. Overall sentiment remains tentative ahead of the U.S. data dump.
• Drilling down on the earnings calendar, two big consumer-facing names report before the opening bell. First is used-car retailer CarMax. Investors will be parsing its results for insights into the health of the auto market and the strength of the U.S. consumer, particularly regarding big-ticket purchases. Second, we have cruise operator Carnival Corp. Its report will be a key indicator of travel and leisure demand. With consumer budgets being squeezed by inflation, Wall Street wants to see if people are still willing to spend on vacations, which could have broader implications for the services economy.
• Beyond the data, the market will be hanging on every word from the Federal Reserve today. We have a parade of speakers on the docket, including some influential voices. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman and Governor Michael S. Barr will be speaking, as will New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher J. Waller. With bond yields at critical levels, traders will be desperately seeking clues about the central bank's thinking. Any commentary on inflation, the economic outlook, or the potential for a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate path could inject immediate volatility.
• NVIDIA was a standout in a down market, closing up 1.68% to $228.86. The chip giant defied the broader market selloff after it announced a massive $150 billion increase to its share repurchase authorization. This brings its total buyback program to $235 billion, signaling immense confidence in its future cash flow, especially as demand for its AI chips continues to soar. The move provides significant support for the stock on a day of widespread market weakness.
• Boeing shares sank, closing down nearly 7% at $184.39, hitting a new low for the year. The sharp drop followed reports that the FAA will delay certification of its 737 MAX 10 jet. Regulators are reviewing a newly discovered software glitch, renewing investor concerns over production timelines and potential impacts on revenue. The news sent the aerospace giant's stock to its worst single-day performance in over a year.
• Shares of AMD slid 3.61%, ending the day at $607.87 after a recent run to all-time highs. The drop came as the company announced a major move to bolster its AI capabilities, agreeing to acquire AI research firm World Labs for approximately $8.2 billion in an all-stock deal. While the acquisition aims to better compete with rivals in the AI space, the pullback reflects broader market pressure and potential shareholder concern over the cost of the deal.
• So, the one thing to watch as we head into the U.S. session is the bond market's unrelenting grip on equities. The narrative is all about yields. The 10-year is at a level that is fundamentally re-pricing risk across all asset classes. That makes today's 10:00 AM Eastern data releases absolutely critical. The Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings reports will be viewed through the lens of Fed policy. Stronger-than-expected numbers could reinforce the 'higher-for-longer' theme, potentially sending yields even higher and putting immediate pressure on stocks right from the opening bell.